WHERE IS IT SPREADING?
THE SPREAD FORECAST
SLF has confirmed populations in 20+ states. These are the most likely next targets — and why.
Spotted Lanternfly moves in predictable patterns — following highway corridors, following Tree of Heaven habitat, and hitchhiking on cargo. Here's where it's headed.
10 states confirmed 2021–2024. Spread is accelerating.
Understanding the threat
How SLF Spreads
SLF spread is not random. Two factors drive almost all new infestations.
Human Transport
Genetic studies show SLF populations jumped hundreds of miles at once — not gradual spread. SLF rides on vehicles, cargo shipments, and nursery stock. A single egg mass on a car bumper can establish a population in a new state.
Source: Boyle et al., Biological Invasions (2021)
Natural Flight + ToH Corridors
SLF flies short distances on its own, following Tree of Heaven corridors along roadsides and river valleys. Natural spread is slow — but it fills in gaps between human-assisted jumps. SLF cannot survive frost as an adult: spread happens via egg masses on transported goods.
Tree of Heaven is present in 45 US states — providing habitat nearly everywhere SLF could arrive.
2026–2027 high-risk states
Tier 1 — Likely First Detections
These states have the combination of confirmed-state borders, active cargo corridors, and Tree of Heaven habitat that makes first detections likely within the next 12–18 months.
| State | Risk | Primary Reason | What to Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | VERY HIGH | ToH dense along I-70 corridor; borders IL (confirmed 2023) and KY (confirmed 2024) | Reports near St. Louis or Kansas City; cargo from Chicago metro |
| Virginia (Southern / Southwest) | HIGH | SLF confirmed in Northern VA; spread moving southwest through the Shenandoah Valley | Reports in Roanoke, Charlottesville, and the New River Valley |
| Virginia Beach / Hampton Roads, VA | HIGH | Isolated from NoVA infestation but a major cargo and port hub | Egg masses on vehicles arriving from Northern VA or DC |
| South Carolina (Lowcountry expansion) | HIGH | Already confirmed (2024) in Upstate; expected to expand toward coast by 2027 | Reports in Columbia, Greenwood, or the I-26 corridor toward Charleston |
| Wisconsin | MODERATE | Shares border with IL (confirmed 2023); Lake Michigan ports are a key SLF entry risk | Reports near Milwaukee, Racine, or Kenosha; port cargo from Chicago |
| Minnesota | MODERATE | Minneapolis–St. Paul are major cargo hubs; ToH present in urban corridors | Reports in the Twin Cities metro; cargo movement from Chicago or Indianapolis |
| Iowa | MODERATE | Cargo corridor between IL and Nebraska; ToH present along river bluffs | Reports near the Quad Cities or along I-80 |
| Florida (Northern) | MODERATE | Warm climate limits cold-weather die-off; urban cargo from the East Coast makes early detection likely | Reports near Jacksonville, Tallahassee, or Gainesville; nursery stock from confirmed states |
Missouri
VERY HIGHToH dense along I-70 corridor; borders IL (confirmed 2023) and KY (confirmed 2024)
Watch: Reports near St. Louis or Kansas City; cargo from Chicago metro
Virginia (Southern / Southwest)
HIGHSLF confirmed in Northern VA; spread moving southwest through the Shenandoah Valley
Watch: Reports in Roanoke, Charlottesville, and the New River Valley
Virginia Beach / Hampton Roads, VA
HIGHIsolated from NoVA infestation but a major cargo and port hub
Watch: Egg masses on vehicles arriving from Northern VA or DC
South Carolina (Lowcountry expansion)
HIGHAlready confirmed (2024) in Upstate; expected to expand toward coast by 2027
Watch: Reports in Columbia, Greenwood, or the I-26 corridor toward Charleston
Wisconsin
MODERATEShares border with IL (confirmed 2023); Lake Michigan ports are a key SLF entry risk
Watch: Reports near Milwaukee, Racine, or Kenosha; port cargo from Chicago
Minnesota
MODERATEMinneapolis–St. Paul are major cargo hubs; ToH present in urban corridors
Watch: Reports in the Twin Cities metro; cargo movement from Chicago or Indianapolis
Iowa
MODERATECargo corridor between IL and Nebraska; ToH present along river bluffs
Watch: Reports near the Quad Cities or along I-80
Florida (Northern)
MODERATEWarm climate limits cold-weather die-off; urban cargo from the East Coast makes early detection likely
Watch: Reports near Jacksonville, Tallahassee, or Gainesville; nursery stock from confirmed states
Tier 2 — Watch Zone
Detection within 2–5 years. These states have the habitat and cargo exposure but are farther from confirmed populations or have lower ToH density.
Arkansas
ToH present; neighboring states at escalating risk
Mississippi
Southern border state; ToH present in urban areas
Alabama
Similar to MS; Birmingham cargo corridors from TN and GA
Louisiana
New Orleans port is a major cargo hub for eastern US goods
Oklahoma
ToH sparse but cargo corridors from MO and AR
Nebraska
ToH in Omaha area; cargo transit hub between confirmed IL and western states
Tier 3 — Lower Risk, Monitor
Sporadic detections are possible but sustained establishment is less likely due to climate, ToH density, or intensive surveillance programs.
Colorado
ToH less dense; colder climate; sporadic cargo risk only
Texas
ToH in DFW area; large state — isolated detections possible before establishment
California
High cargo risk; intense surveillance; detection would trigger major emergency response
The habitat factor
The Tree of Heaven Factor
The single best predictor of where SLF can establish is where Tree of Heaven grows. ToH is found in 45 US states — but is densest in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest. States with sparse ToH are less likely to see SLF establishment even if individual insects arrive.
ToH grows along roadsides, rail corridors, and disturbed urban land — the same paths SLF uses to spread. Removing ToH near your property is one of the most effective long-term control strategies.
Identify Tree of Heaven →Your role in stopping the spread
What This Means For You
If you're in an unconfirmed state
Be a first responder. Your first sighting report in a new state triggers an emergency response from state agriculture agencies. Early detection = eradication opportunity.
Report a Sighting →If you're in a border state
Check your vehicles, equipment, and firewood every time you travel from a confirmed state. SLF egg masses are the primary hitchhiker — know what they look like.
SLF Biology Guide →If you're in a confirmed state
Stop the spread by inspecting your vehicle before driving to uninfested areas. Every egg mass transported to a new area can establish a new population.
Adult Season Guide →Already confirmed
Current Confirmed States
See our full guide for each confirmed state:
Browse all state resources:
All State Guides →Every sighting counts
Report What You See
Early detection in an unconfirmed state can trigger an emergency eradication response. If you see SLF in a state not on this list — report immediately.